I use quantity of data rather than years. WHY? Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Thanks. You may be wondering why the profit is coming from the horses that haven’t performed as well on this race type and why we’re skipping those horses ranked two and who have made a profit. Please note that we have had some issues getting BSP figures recently, something we are in the process of fixing, so some may be missing from our sample. Another variation of the above horse racing system is to MISS OUT the favourite and use the second favourite as your stating point. Simply navigate to that particular race at your chosen, betting exchange, bookmaker website or go down to your local bookies and take a look at the odds/prices that you are being offered. Change ), You are commenting using your Twitter account. Yes, I could have chosen 70 days, 700 days or even 1 day, all are a layoff. Bookies have to balance their books and with all the weight of money on the favourite, the price of the other horses tends to lengthen. Betting continues at one level point as long as the first race horse wins. If you look at both 1st and 2nd favourites, the proportion can go up to 50%-60%, and if you include 1st, 2nd and 3rd favourites, together they win between 70% and 80% of races. Updates to several Bright software packages: pick-3 and pick-4 lotteries, horse racing, 5- and 6-number lotto games. I think it would be interesting to view the PLACE record of 2nd favs, especially in races of 8 runners and more. Those selections we find with Flat Turf we can further reduce by only considering those ranked four or worse for their average speed figure over the same race type. Hi I wonder where I could find the race reults last 5/6 years as 120032 or 13200. as I like to see races 2nd favs do well also select perhaps 6 races where 2 2nd favs have won. Pleased to hear our stats are very close to each other . We shall look at investigating this in the future. Don’t be put off at all, it takes about 10 minutes to do, not a lot of time for a horse racing system that could change your financial future. In order to write an email, or an article, I need to choose a point to pull data from. I am new to your site.as i just registered yesterday. ABOUT THE AUTHOR: John Anthony is a recognized authority in the PRO gambling world. Bonuses expire in 7 days. How those figures equate to prices and race type I don’t record as the statistics do relate to favourites only. Hey Rob, you’d need a database to be able to run that query on. There’s a lot of information out there about how favourites in horse racing finish, but what about the second favourites? I have personally had winning bets of up to 25/1 although these are very few and far between it’s very nice when it happens. I have not claimed that this is a total analysis of lay-off’s, it isn’t, it’s a starting point, you can take it further, not use it at all or do with it what you will. Simply miss out all the “Danger” races as described on the previous page then try to find races that have between 12 & 16 runners, especially handicap races because in handicap races horses are allotted different weights to carry, which in effect gives ALL horses the same chance of winning. Because this has been taken into account by the market the odds are now too low for us to make a profit on them. Overall my statistics are within 1 per cent of yours. One statistic noted was that out of 200 days racing at Wolverhampton there were 58 days when a favourite didn’t win! Let’s focus our attentions on just those race types going forwards. DB, We have a rating that would allow you to do this in the Racing Dossier. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. Change ), You are commenting using your Facebook account. WHERE WOULD I FIND THE AVERAGE B.S.P’S OF 1ST, 2ND, 3RD, 4TH, 5TH, 6TH FAVOURITES IN THE BETTING. Kentucky Derby Results, Past Horse Numbers Ranked by Wins. Then as the days go by your betting bank increases and then so does your initial stake money and soon instead of placing £2.50 on each horse you will find yourself placing £22.50 on each horse, I can see how you start enjoying this horse racing system now! The starting point for this system is the informative quality it possesses, Mel (creator of the system) is dedicated to investigating everything necessary about a particular horse race, everything about the horse and who will ride it in the race. Learn how your comment data is processed. Plus you will need to register yourself at the http://www.racingpost.co.uk website if you haven’t done already then go do it now, it doesn’t cost anything. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. In the £2.50 example above if the favourite wins then you will win a level stake profit of £2.50 BUT if the favourite loses and an 8/1 shot wins, you will then pick up a nice £12.50 profit. Once you have done that you need to go to Betfair and simply check the odds for the horse that ALL 3 tipsters have given. So the top two choices win 54 percent of the races and finish second 74 percent of the time. I haven’t done that specifically but would be a good thing to do. In the UK, odds-on favourites win around 59% of the time on the flat according to www.flatstats.co.uk. In the UK and IRE in 2015 there were 13,003 second favourite horses. Selections process for this horse racing system is very easy to do: if in your chosen race the favorite has odds of 3 at Betfair then you are allowed to place your stakes on the favorite and the second favorite in the betting. Am I wrong? Using betfair exchange I thought you could only back named horses. It’s obvious Wolverhampton is a place to avoid when backing favourites. I would expect to see that profit to get eroded the more bets we place, which is why I have ignored it. How to Make Money Handicapping Horse Races and the Future of Racing, Truth From an Old Timer, Horse Racing Handicapping Using Paths and Speed Points, Doing Your Own Research on Horse Racing Tips, Determining Fitness In Horse Racing And How To Pick The One In Peak Condition. 2 X Horse Racing Systems That Work – FINALLY! Change ), You are commenting using your Google account. If ALL 3 ( 2 X newspaper tipsters plus racing post) select the same horse then that COULD be a definite bet. Could you tell me: 1 Over a season how often does the favourite win the race? Anonymous Ginger Ltd. does not encourages reckless gambling. But what happens if we look at these to Betfair SP instead of SP: If you’d simply bet second favourites in Flat Turf races between seven furlongs and two miles, and Chase Turf races three miles or longer at Betfair SP… you’d have made +92.37 units profit. ( Log Out /  It’s the statistics from 2016 based on the information I outlined in my email. If the favorite were to win you would receive back £20 in winnings and your £10 stake money as well, so a total of £30. Interestingly, favourites had an average dividend of $2.80 (about 7/4) but showed a … We know that the majority of winners come from the first four or five in the betting. Have you compared these 2015 figures to 2014 or 2013? No complicated procedures to go through . 2) Back the unnamed second favourite. Looking at yesterdays results at Hamilton, Plumpton and Uttoxeter, there were actually 13 qualifying races and a total of six winning favourites … There can be any number of reasons that the horse lost as the favorite last out. Bookmakers on the High Street and on their web sites take bets on the un-named fav and 2nd fav. Also with favourites there can be a wide difference on the various courses. This allows us to reduce our shortlist of contenders further. Which once you’ve taken off the 10420 losing bets means a loss of -1451 units to SP and -551 units to Betfair SP. PayPal and Card payments only. The second favourite is the 'second best' horse in the race. Another reader has a system and betting method which consists of the following: 1) Select three races that have eight or fewer runners on the same day. Generally speaking anything relating to cloth number doesn’t hold up long-term, that’s because there’s no reasoning behind which cloth get a number. i.e.2nd, 3rd, 4th or unplaced. It could mean 70 days or more or a month or more. small stakes, statistically that is incredibly low but I’ve found it to be a good point in sports betting for quantity of selections versus beginning to be statistically significant. The reason horses ranked two are making a profit is most likely due to not having enough data collected yet. If you've tried to pick winners in horse races you've realized that it isn't easy to pick enough winners to make a profit, even though the best horse is indicated by the odds. If in this horse racing system you placed say £10 on each one, your total outgoings are £20. Laying the favourite in a horse race has become a popular strategy in recent years with the advent of betting exchanges, and it offers the punter the chance to lay the bookmaker’s favourite in a specific race. I wonder how many people have started a system, whether it be a simple one such horses considered best drawn over 6f that are also Racing Post predicted favourite, or more complicated in using the second favourite in the Daily Mirror if the main Tipster has gone for it … Would backing second favourites in races where the favourite is over backed and vulnerable work? Required fields are marked *. Trainers will often say their horse will need the run, but that tends to be those who either haven’t got much in the way of true racecourse type ground and decent horses to ‘race’ against at home. There were three meetings scheduled – Folkestone with figures of 40% and 21%, Kempton with 28% and 22% and Southwell had 32% and 19%. He wanted to know if Connolly thought money could be made out of betting the first two favourites and … 2 Over a season how often does the second favourite horse win the race? I like a minimum of 100 winners in a sample before being happy to bet to ( Log Out /  At a first glance that looks pretty grim. The other variation of this horse racing system is where you miss out the favourite all together and the selection process for this is much simple and quicker. Thanks for the suggestion George. Does this apply to 2cd. Hope that helps. This horse racing system, called “Level Stake” betting, has been around for “Donkey’s” years but not too many people actually do it, simply because the majority of punters are looking for a BIG win with every bet they place and to be honest they lose almost ALL the time. Then if the 2nd favourite came 2nd last time, it would get 7 points and so on. Or horses with the type of physique or attitude which makes them hard build muscle definition in a water walker or in the limited grounds at the trainer’s disposal. Do you have such data by any chance? Horses ranked four or worse are being under-estimated by the market which is why they made a profit in 2015. The best days for the system are when the favourite wins in the 6th race with a 4 point stake and the second favourite wins in the 5th, again with 4 points on it. Second choices win approximately 21 percent of all races and finish second 42 percent of the time. We are designing a system builder that will allow non-techies to query a racing database to ask these types of questions, but we are still some way off it at the moment. The Horse Racing Betting Systems That Could Work Wonders for You Everyone knows that trying to win money by betting on horse racing isn’t an easy thing to do. If you have a concern about problem gambling, you can contact GamCare on 0845 6000 133 or gamcare.org.uk, Anonymous Ginger © Copyright 2021, All Rights Reserved, Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. His worldwide famous Horse Racing System, the Sure2Profit Calculator PRO 1.8, has helped over 1,288 people making up to ?80,000 per year on Tax FREE profits. I have decided to build a horse racing system. The second method, is to follow a reliable and trustworthy tipster. Sunday 25th. They are 11/10, 6/5, 5/4, 11/8, 6/4, 7/4, 15/8. Interesting. Winning Second Favourites - Horse Racing Systems - Backing quick return horses on the Flat is by no means a new idea but it still works and can be used very successfully in finding good chance second favourites at decent prices. In theory, this seems like an excellent idea. In simple terms, you are betting against the favourite and if any other horse in the race wins, you also win. As for the why choosing 90 days, this is simple to answer. Let’s look at the breakdown of second favourites by race type: That provides us with some very interesting information. Of course, there’s a few reasons for that. Then all you need to do for this horse racing system to work is to get the odds for the SECOND favourite and place your stake money down on as many selections as the table allows you to. To LayPro88 System, one clear 3rd favourite is one horse that near the start has the 3rd small odds, is inside the range (5.5 to 7.5) and at least 1.5 difference to the 1st favourite (example: 1st favourite @ 4.3 and 3rd favourite @ 5.8 or greater) The percentages for todays meetings of 2nd favourite winners are: Wolverhampton: 17% Plumpton: 18% and Catterick: 19%. The UK horse racing market is a tough nut to crack. If you’re looking to find contenders then this can be a great way to start and then use these horses as your shortlist to form read further. In the case of hurdlers, the finishing positions in the qualifying last run does not seem to have any great effect on results. These are strike rates of 26 per cent, 19 per cent, 16 per cent, 11 per cent, 10 per cent and 5 per cent. Hi Roy, I will look at getting the stakes/handicap split figures, just for seconds favs or with the other data in as well? 1. We will take a £1000 betting bank as an example but you can start with however much you can afford, this horse racing system works for everybody! Particularly considering there’s no kind of analysis at all and you would have been betting an average of 36 selections a day. A horse can win run in races in a week, even four in two weeks, but at some point they become more tired than fit and need a ‘layoff’. Receive 3x £10 Horse Racing Free Bets, plus a £10 Gameshow Bonus. Terms & Conditions | Privacy Policy | Disclaimer. If you’d simply bet second favourites in Flat Turf races between seven furlongs and two miles, and Chase Turf races three miles or longer at Betfair SP… you’d have made +92.37 units profit. You should look at this as a long term venture and protect your betting bank as best you can. 3. With the Favourites setting, you can specify favouritism status of the horse. If you were to select a big race where the favorite was priced up at 7 on Betfair then you are allowed to place your stakes on the first 6 in the betting. This site is not intended for an audience under 18 years of age. However the sample is large enough that the missing ones should not make a difference. It is a physiological fact however, that the more frequently they run, the more the benefits of fitness begin to diminish. One point goes on the first race favourite and one on the second race favourite. ( Log Out /  Very interesting, thank you for the information. highest points. If the odds are acceptable with the odds in the table then you have a definite bet and you stake on however many horses that the odds in the grid tell you to. Find out how to become one of them here: http://www.sure2profit.com/software.htm. Hi Michael been looking at which race cloth number won by how many runners ran in the race 1 2 3 4 numbers come up the most is there a way to run the stats on this through a full season Flat AW Jumps not sure if type of race or distance or ground type would alter things got the most stats from 8 to14 runners in the race thanks. This horse racing system simply works by placing the same stakes ( i.e. I will paper bet for at least 2 months. Of course, if you have access to other ratings then you can use these to refine your shortlist further. You are right, on Betfair you have to watch the market to see the second favourite. favourites? In order to reduce the number of bets I looked at the prices of the winners and those with a winning percentage higher than the favourite percentage wins for the course dropped the number of bets to 228 a reduction of 67%. All odds below are in decimals and are the odds of the Favourite in any given race. As horse racing is notoriously difficult to predict, an increasing number of punters are looking to make a profit by laying favourites. Co-Favourites are horses that started with same price as two or more horses. This kind of linear improvement in Profit is a good indication and again we would want to be concentrating on horses ranked four or worse where the market is underestimating their ability. There are loads of trainers who have no problem getting their horse to the race ready and able to win after months off, even though running against horses with one, two three runs in the past week, month etc. 1st Favourite, 2nd favourite, 3rd favourite and 4th favourite, making a little more sense now?? Second favourites won 128 races, third 106, fourth 70, fifth 65 and sixth favourites won 31. But… that’s -11% ROI to SP and -4.23% to Betfair SP, which in fact is not a bad starting point. Favourites at Wolverhampton won 35% of races, Plumpton 38% and Catterick 33%. Opt in and place a £10 qualifying bet at odds of 2.00 or greater on Horse Racing within 7 days of registering; excludes cashed out bets. I hope to become better informed by reading what you and other members have to share. It is very important to know every detail of the race and the horse, says Mel, is the fundamental piece to make a winning bet.Mel Gee is an expert, a man dedicated to offering his followers a way to ma… So if the horse coming second is 12/1 you will get a much bigger payout than if the horse is the 9/2 second favourite. For regular readers of these articles, you will know that I enjoy looking at horse racing betting systems. The lists below show the price of the winner and it’s place in the betting market, 1st equals Favourite, 2nd equals 2nd fav etc. So what about these second favourites… can we make a profit from them? It is a very simple horse racing system, but highly effective and if done properly can make a very nice second income. Leading Novice Hurdle Prospects for 2021 Cheltenham Festival, Inside the Rails – Two Runs Down, One To Go, MINI BETTING SYSTEM #9: National Hunt Trainers That Win to Follow in January & February. Looking at the original ROI’s and comparing, we can see that we should be focusing on Flat Turf races that are between seven furlongs and two miles and Chase Turf races that are three miles or longer. If the second favorite were to win at odds of 5, then you would receive back £40 plus your £10 stake money back for a total of £50 return. And it’s much easier if you define your own parameters subjectively or don’t define them at all…the greyer the area the easier it is to disguise the legitimacy of the case being made. £10 on each selection ) but it also has some rules, which are pretty straight forward to understand. Simply divide your betting bank by 100, so for a £1000 bank this figure is £10. Now for this horse racing system to work, let’s say for arguments sake that the favourite was being offered @ 5.3. Odds of Favourite In decimals Bet On First. 8236514. You can use these rules to find contenders. The same goes for any price that the favourite has within the odds displayed in the table above. When following systems you should never rely on just one or two golden geese to lay golden eggs. VAT No. He’s just guessing in order to cobble some ‘evidence’ together. I opted for 90 days because, in my experience, the majority of punters consider a 90 day or longer layoff to be a long layoff. Oh yes, that’s after a 5% commission, and with more than 100 wins in both that is also statistically significant. Once you’ve found your contenders then investigate them further to determine whether you should place a bet on them or not. Your email address will not be published. The classier the animal and the more skill and fitness/training facilities the trainer has at his disposal, the more likely the horse will be hard fit and very competitive even if it hasn’t set foot on a racecourse for a year or more. The horse drew clear in the upper stretch and held off the second nag by half a length, also paying $9.40.